Monday, April 30, 2007

Tough Times Don't Last

The golden beaches are not quite crawling with tourists. The verdant hills are alive with the sound of birdsong, not foreign accents. At the smaller resorts, accommodation is available at a fraction of what it used to cost... After a promising start, the number of inbound tourists has been on the wane this year. Considering that tourism is Sri Lanka’s fourth largest foreign exchange earner, this has resulted in furrowed brows in some corridors of power.

When written in Chinese, however, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters: one represents danger, the other signifies opportunity... So, undaunted by the immediate danger, the Tourism Board (SLTB) is using this opportunity to “get our PR (public relations) act together and get our infrastructure right in terms of ability to deliver.”

Renton de Alwis, SLTB’s Chairman, elaborates: “The strap-line ‘A land like no other’ could sprout extensions like ‘Beaches like no other’, ‘Hills like no other’ and even ‘Rain like no other’... One prominent target would be the older population/ seniors - They have funds, and they can travel any time without waiting for school holidays.”

A foreign tourist is a foreign passport-holder who spends more than a day in the country he is visiting. More than 70% of such visitors to Sri Lanka come on holiday or for leisure.

The Ministry of Tourism has started consultative meeting with stakeholders, the media and similar knowledgeable persons, to share developments and chart a new course. Addressing the second such meeting, Additional Secretary George Michael revealed that advisory panels have been created for Hotel school operations, Niche tourism products, Cruise tourism and Domestic tourism.

“Domestic tourism fills hotel rooms during difficult times, when foreign occupancy is down”, explained Michael. The strategy appears to be paying dividends: Local guest nights have increased this year, even as foreign guest nights have declined.

Deputy Minister Faiszer Musthapha talked about the high-potential Middle Eastern market. With 45 flights per week, airline connectivity to this region is second only to India. Vipula Vanigasekara, General Manager – Sri Lanka Convention Bureau, spoke of the MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions) segment that represents 12% of arrivals. This is an upmarket segment because it spends four to five times as much as an average holiday maker does.

Indians comprise the highest number of tourists to Sri Lanka. They are compulsive shoppers, spending as much as 33% of their budget on shopping (average, all countries: 21%). The SLTB is planning to launch a mega promotional campaign during July 2007 to tap this market. It is estimated that 16 million Indians will travel out during 2010.

Sri Lanka lacks resources to spend big bucks – like the 2 million Euros spent by India on the ‘Incredible !ndia’ promotion. Hence, innovative ideas come to the fore. Niche tourism, for example, implies Sri Lankan tourism with a distinct flavour – like having ayurvedic doctors to explain why gotukola is good for you!

Travelling: The Spice of Life

Later this week, I will be traveling to Kandy - a hill station in the central part of Sri Lanka - in a UN vehicle, in my avatar as a Special Correspondent with the Financial Times.

I am working on a feature story on the spice industry in Sri Lanka, which has languished because of quality and marketing issues... There used to be a time when spices from here used to be exported – and even smuggled – into India.

The United Nations Development Programme is attempting to revive the industry to its glory days.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Fireworks Like No Other


Action on the night of the World Cup Cricket finals between Australia and Sri Lanka: Brass bands playing the baila on the streets... Supporters waving flags from car windows... Quite a festive atmosphere and I was loving it..!

Rain delayed the start; so, I went to sleep. I was woken up during the early hours of the morning and – from my bedroom window - saw fireworks, due North. I soon figured out that those were tracer bullets, i.e. anti-aircraft fire, and assumed that that was how the Sri Lankan Army celebrates victory.

Only later did I realise that M/s Gilchrist, Duckworth & Lewis had done Sri Lanka in… and that LTTE aircraft had dropped bombs on the outskirts of Colombo. Never a dull moment, huh?

The Tourist Board describes Sri Lanka as ‘a land like no other’. Tell me about it!

Friday, April 27, 2007

Wanted: Dignity and Souvenirs

SV: Vani is demanding her souvenirs right now and so is the guy who sits in your place. He can neither contain his excitement nor retain his dignity.

AM: I found that comment amusing – the one about a certain individual finding it hard to retain his dignity... In terms of financial knowledge, I might have a worthy successor. However, there are a lot of important 'human' characteristics that are hard to come by, it appears! Give him time.

Communist Enclosure

KVK: Typically, we would need a minimum of six months from manuscript to publication… would depend on the kind of editing called for. So, if we were looking to publish in December 2010, it would be great if the manuscript reached us by January 2010. If that isn't possible, then latest by May.

Whatever you may have read about me, I can be ruthless with my red pen, so be warned!

AM: I hope you will be ruthless with your red pen; I wouldn't have it any other way. But, yes - forewarned is forearmed…

Let me first try to put together a product worthy of HarperCollins' consideration. I will revert to you after I have come to that stage…

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Tourism on the Front Foot

Mahela’s scintillating stroke-play and Murali’s mesmeric bowling were the cynosure of all eyes during the World Cup semi-finals and finals. However, amidst the spectators, one could not help noticing an enthusiastic group of supporters. They were flaunting boards emblazoned with traditional Sri Lankan masks and were prominent enough for the cameras to focus on time and again.

Therein lies a tale of innovative Marketing and creativity. The attractive blue boards featuring cricketers and masks were developed in Colombo and dispatched to the West Indies. The package also contained Sri Lankan flags, Sri Lanka Tourism Board (SLTB) caps, T-shirts and banners. The messages on the boards were subtle and understated. Anything more overt would have been considered ‘commercial’ – which cameramen have been trained not to focus on.

The group of thirty Sri Lankans studying in the USA was upgraded so that they could be together in one enclosure, to enhance their collective visibility. This initiative was the brainchild of the SLTB, implemented in collaboration with our embassy in Washington.

To incur this expenditure – albeit small - soon after March 2007, in which month tourist arrivals declined by 36%, takes foresight and guts. A multiplicity of factors – from adverse travel advisories to the Cricket World Cup - had contributed to the decline.

In his wood-paneled office, Renton de Alwis, SLTB’s Chairman, exuded optimism while talking exclusively to the Financial Times on Thursday. “When you’re not doing well,” he proclaimed, “be seen in the best of places!” There is a palpable sense of excitement in his voice as he describes the board as ‘dream sellers’ whose “business is to be positive.”

Immediately after the famous victory over New Zealand, the SLTB released a message congratulating the Sri Lankan cricket team at 4 o’clock in the morning!

Monday, April 23, 2007

Assignment Colombo: RV

Lately, my life has been revolving around the book – recording, transcribing and typing. The creative work will come later. (I hope to finish by December 2007.) In fact, even this evening, I have a recording session with Boyagoda, about whom the book is.

I write for the Financial Times whenever there is an assignment. I have not been chasing them for assignments because of paucity of time. I write creative pieces when the mood moves me.

Malaika's wedding is scheduled for October 25th. The maaplai's name is Nirmal Pieris, with the Sri Lankan pronunciation, i.e. Nirmaaal... Apparently, the last Colombo wedding in the family was yours..! So, everyone is maha-excited here.

Saturday, April 21, 2007

The Economy According To CBSL

  • Broad-Based Economic Growth Of 7.4%: Per Capita Income $ 1,355
  • Services Has No ‘Natural Limitations’, Will Be Engine of Growth
  • Need To Accelerate Infrastructure Development Programme

The Central Bank Annual Report is prepared primarily to fulfill a legal obligation of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). However, over the years, this report has gained in importance and now serves the needs of a broad spectrum of readers. Last week, the ‘State of the Economy’, as dealt with in Part 1 of the 2006 Report, was the subject of a public lecture by Dr P Nandalal Weerasinghe, Director of Economic Research at CBSL.

First, the statistics… During 2006, Sri Lanka’s economy grew by 7.4%, the highest since 1978. In the process, the country’s per capita income rose to US$ 1,355. Unemployment dropped to 6.5%, the lowest level ever. Dr Weerasinghe pointed out that what is commendable about all these accomplishments is that they were achieved amidst several challenges. Some such impediments were high oil prices, an escalation in terrorist activity and counter-terrorism measures, and natural disasters.

Growth was broad-based too - with the services sector growing by 8.3%, industry by 7.2% and agriculture by 4.7%. Dr Weerasinghe, describing the services sector as “the driving force in the economy”, said that the country is poised to become a service-oriented economy.

Explaining the higher growth of the services sector, H N Thenuwara, Assistant Governor, CBSL said,”There are natural limitations in agriculture and industry because they occupy physical space. Besides, our competitive advantage has always been in services.”

The industrial sector needed “to transform itself into a globally competitive, dynamic and technologically sophisticated sector”, said Dr Weerasinghe. He called for further diversification into value-added apparel, minerals, gems & jewellery and industrial goods.

To enhance productivity in the agricultural sector, Dr Weerasinghe suggested adopting consistent trade policies and making rural financing available.

“The external sector also continued to expand, supported by strong global growth and preferential access through bilateral and multilateral trade agreements,” said Dr Weerasinghe.

On the failures side, Dr Weerasinghe said that monetary policy during 2006 was aimed at reducing demand-driven inflationary pressures. The CBSL raised policy interest rates by 125 basis points during 2006 – and a further 50 basis points in 2007. The bank also absorbed excess liquidity through Open Market Operations. However, it was a situation of too little, too late.

Dr Weerasinghe listed four “fundamental forces of productivity improvement” - infrastructure development, technological improvement, human capital development and research & development.

Speaking to the Financial Times later, Thenuwara stressed the need to activate the infrastructure development programme. “The Government has committed financing for the implementation of planned major infrastructure projects“, he said. “Making this available within the stipulated period is a prerequisite to achieving higher growth. Besides, emerging infrastructure requirements need to be financed through public-private partnerships.”

Talking of the need to increase productivity, Thenuwara said that significant improvement in operations of state-owned enterprises is critical.

Friday, April 20, 2007

A Book & Some Great Company: JA

I don't think the book will see the light of day till next year – or even later. I am fairly confident that it will do well. Let's see… HarperCollins has evinced interest – and I am in touch with the same individual who handled Anita Pratap's Island of Blood.

Fortunately, the Tata Group has been incredibly supportive during this period... They are trying two parallel routes: liaison and legal. Something should click in the near future… Keep praying. The fantastic thing is that Titan is continuing to pay my salary. I have no clue how they propose to recover the amount, but – for the time being – it suits me fine not to ask.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

On Fear and Greed: KVK

Boyagoda would like to release only after peace returns… I would like to release when I'm ready... More time would permit me to fine-tune the product – up to a point, beyond which diminishing marginal utility would probably set in.

I also do realise that there are books and there are un-putdown-able literary masterpieces. Sometimes, the difference is only that the writer was in too much of a hurry and did not give it 'the creative treatment'. But I guess I am preaching to a missionary…

In the ultimate analysis, I think we have plenty of time and the decision is likely to be an emotional struggle: between fear and greed.

UNESCAP's Flagship Report

At a simultaneous world-wide event on Wednesday, UNESCAP launched the 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2007'. The 59 th edition of the organisation's flagship publication is a comprehensive and extremely readable 190-page report.

In his welcome address at the Colombo launch, Abu Selim, UNDP's Country Director, said the publication would be useful as a policy guide for each individual country. This is because the report considers both the economic and social sides of the development coin.

The impressive 7.9% growth in the Asia-Pacific region's developing economies during 2006 represents one third of worldwide growth. "Despite this encouraging trend," Selim cautioned, "there is no room for complacency." Caught up in the obsession with growth, countries have been tending to overlook the need for poverty alleviation.

Presenting the report, Dr Muhammad Hussain Malik, Economic Affairs Officer at UNESACAP Bangkok, pointed out that the Asia-Pacific region is becoming the engine of global growth. The 2007 outlook for the region is characterized by continuing dynamism, he said. This optimism is despite the slowing US economy and a decline in global electronics demand. Dr Malik described the performance of South Asian economies as "impressive".

The likely global slowdown in 2007 would cast its shadow on Sri Lanka's GDP growth rate, which is expected to decline to 7% this year, predicts Dr Malik. In addition, with inflation ruling at an unacceptably high level, the government could resort to measures that would lead to demand contraction.

"The reform process needs to be maintained, to sustain high growth", urges Dr Malik, while calling for higher spending on rural infrastructure in South Asia. The incidence of poverty in the region is higher in rural than in urban areas. The challenge confronting governments, therefore, is to ensure growth that is inclusive and broad based, he points out. A rupee spent on roads has seven times as much impact on poverty alleviation as a rupee spent on specific anti-poverty programmes.

The UNESCAP report has a chapter on gender discrimination. The annual economic cost of low participation of women in the labour force has been estimated at $ 42 – 47 billion. Dr Malik believes that the drive for a more equitable gender balance would consume little effort and cost, if only there is strong political commitment. In the World Economic Forum's 'Gender Equality Index', Sri Lanka is ranked 13th – out of more than 100 countries assessed. The other South Asian nations languish among the bottom 25.

Dr Saman Kelegama, Executive Director at the Institute of Policy Studies, spoke about Sri Lanka's economy. The Asian buoyancy has contributed one percentage point to the country's growth rate of 7.4%, he suggested. He also said that the country has adequate foreign exchange reserves for three months' imports. Dr Kelegama strikes a note of caution while drawing attention to the budget deficit during 2006. At 8.4% of GDP, this was among the highest in South Asia, "partly as a result of higher military spending."

Monday, April 16, 2007

End of the Beginning? VL

You also have hinted at the deteriorating atmosphere there. From what I have been hearing, the superlative financial and market performance is covering up a deeper malaise.

This is a bad sign - Once employees cease to enjoy their work, it represents the end of the beginning. I do not think I will enjoy working in Tanishq as it is today. I often think back to the days of Jacob Kurian: He used to skin us, but there was a passion for Tanishq that is sadly lacking today. Even those who had it have lost it!

Can you think about what has brought about this change?

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Channel Head - Modern Retail

AA: Have put in my papers here… Am joining Hutch in Mumbai as Channel Head - Modern Retail. Hutch basically wants to set up a new channel for sales and service in modern retail that is developing - malls, multiplexes, hypermarkets…

Have wanted to head back to Mumbai for sometime now… Work has also been getting boring, had not been enjoying what I was doing for some time now… This place has changed…

Saw your blog - you seriously should explore a career as a writer/ columnist… else in Marketing… You will be rocking!!

AM: Mumbai is definitely a good city. If I was any younger, I would have added, ‘because of the pace of life’. Now, I’d say 'despite it'… All said and done, Bangalore softens you up – especially around the midriff...

I still have no clue when my return will happen – It’s in the hands of the Tata Group’s liaison and legal departments. I’m just lying down and enjoying it..!

Friday, April 13, 2007

Measure of Success: KVK

I see this book attracting some attention in pockets of the UK, Canada, India, Australia and the USA - besides in Sri Lanka, of course. Therefore, it would require international distribution. Realistically speaking, I would expect the distribution pattern to be similar to what Penguin, your earlier company, experienced with Anita Pratap's Island of Blood. (Heck, no - I am a realist and would consider my book succesful if we were to sell even one-fifth as many copies as she has sold!)

If we intend to launch by end-September 2007, to coincide with the 5th anniversary of Commodore Boyagoda's release by the LTTE, when would you require the manuscript and synopsis?

Thursday, April 12, 2007

The 'Business' of Writing

KVK: Based on the synopsis and sample writing, you could be offered a contract which, apart from the usual warranties etc required of you, would commit to an advance based on first print run and price.

Suppose the book was priced at Rs 295 in hardcover, you would get 10% of the cover price as royalty on every copy sold. On paperback sales, it would be 7.5% of cover price. About half the money expected to be earned as royalty on first print run (which would be about 3,000) would be given upfront on signature of contract.

RV: Isn't HarperCollins miserly?!!! Or is that a reasonable rate?

Work? A Pleasure??! VL

It has been one year since I left Bangalore…The experiences of the past year have made me even more aware of how precious life is, how important relationships are, and how grateful we should be to God for all the blessings that he has given us.

Overall, I think I have become a better human being, more attuned to the sensitivities of those around me. For instance, I will never again say, “If work was supposed to be a pleasure, why would they pay you to do it?!”

NMM: The Influence Shows

It is nice to hear from you, despite the fact that you are a castaway of sorts onthe Emerald Isle. It does not surprise me to hear that, despite your strange and uncomfortable circumstances, you still have retained your sense of humour.

Your statement about the rain and the leakages seems straight out of a P G Wodehouse book… "In the summer, the river is at the bottom of my garden, and in the winter, my garden is at the bottom of the river.”

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Single-Digit Inflation?

Sooner Than You Think!

Over the past year, prices – as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) - have increased by 19.5%. Against this backdrop, the words of Leon Henderson, the American economist, sound ominous. He said, “Inflation is like pregnancy. If you don’t do something about it quickly, it costs you twice as much.”

So, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has been doing something about it quickly… On the sidelines of a public lecture on Thursday, H N Thenuwara, CBSL’s Assistant Governor, explained: “The very tight monetary policy that we are now adopting will have an impact on future inflation.”

With the CBSL having met reserve money targets during Q1 of 2007, prices have actually come down during this period! This fact has not been reflected in headline inflation numbers, which are typically reported on an annual point-to-point basis.

The removal of the oil subsidy last year resulted in a one-off increase in the administered price of petroleum products. Largely due to this bold decision and consequent trickle-down effects, inflation for the three months March to June 2006 stood at a whopping 12.4%.

“Removal of the oil subsidy helped bring down the budget deficit and was a favourable monetary policy measure in the medium- to long-term”, explains Dr P Nandalal Weerasinghe, Director of Economic Research at CBSL. The subsidy cost the exchequer Rs 23 billion during 2005 and Rs 9 billion during 2006. Weerasinghe also expects that CBSL’s monitoring mechanisms will help reduce inflation to a desirable, single-digit level by end 2007.

With the statistical blip caused by the subsidy removal being factored out by June 2007, analysts are predicting a gradual decline in reported inflation data. Indications are that, barring unforeseen circumstances, inflation will tend towards 10% by June itself.

KVK: HarperCollins Synopsis

What you need to do is write about 500 words about the theme of the book and provide a summary of each chapter. You could go into as much detail as you like.

The best kind of synopsis would run into 10-15 pages including stuff like other books on similar subjects, possible readership, etc. And one chapter written up, even if in rough draft. The idea is to put together as complete a profile as possible.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Enter the Legal Eagles: SRD

April 7th: I appreciate the intervention of the Tata Group’s Legal Department. The department’s involvement would also be useful if we intend to file a case (for wrongful action and/ or compensation) against the authorities...

The authorities at the HCI have suddenly turned sympathetic/ apologetic and have been assuring me of a speedy resolution to this imbroglio. In private, they admit having made a “mistake”.


April 15th: I have sent the documents by Registered Express Post, which typically takes less than a week. However, there could be a delay of upto three days because yesterday was Sinhalese New Year’s Day in Sri Lanka. In my estimate, these should be reaching you during the course of the week commencing April 16th. I would suggest that you retain a copy of this set with you.

Friday, April 6, 2007

The Two 'R's: SV

I spend a lot of my time reading and writing, to keep my mental faculties in working condition. Did I tell you that I am writing the true-life story of a navy commodore who was held in captivity for 8 years?! He does not appear to have been traumatized too much by the experience, and has some interesting stories to tell.

That’s the best I can do – reading and writing - as I wait for New Delhi to resolve its dilemma… I can’t take up a job because that would mean resigning from Titan – and then, New Delhi would have no cause to give me an Employment Visa…!

Lunar Holiday in Lanka: SS

On Monday, we had a holiday in Sri Lanka. Would you believe that every full moon day (called 'Poya'), everything closes here, even the neighbourhood kirana store?! The 'Poya' holiday is in addition to Saturday and Sunday holidays. If you think India has a too many holidays, you should see Sri Lanka!

Thursday, April 5, 2007

I Write, Therefore I Am: SS

I realize that not doing my regular management job is impacting my market value. But I do not see myself as ‘wasting away’. Frankly, life is rather busy – without being hectic. I am keeping in touch with developments by attending seminars that the Financial Times asks me to report on.

The book that I am writing has also been taking up a considerable chunk of my time. I plan to devote some time to writing even after my life settles down... This is how I would ideally spend my retired years too, I think…!

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Paganini's Violin

“From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required.” (Luke 12:48)

Modern-day equivalent: “With great power comes great responsibility." (Uncle Ben to Peter Parker - Spiderman, 2002)

Paganini, who was one of this planet’s greatest violinists, died in 1840. Before his death, he bequeathed his violin to his birthplace, Genoa. His only caveat was that nobody should play his violin after his death. The city of Genoa agreed and displayed Paganini’s violin in a beautiful case.

Other violins of the same vintage were handed from generation to generation – and survived the passage of time. Paganini’s violin, however, decayed and crumbled from misuse.

From a Mail to Chris, My Daughter

Mum has kept me informed of what an obedient daughter you are. Keep it up..! I am proud of what you have become... I hope that, in the years to come, you will continue being the loving and obedient daughter that you have always been.

Just a few days ago, Mum and I were thinking back to the day you were born - and marveling at the fact that our little bundle of joy is on the verge of graduating from high school! Life is such a marvelous gift, my daughter. Enjoy it - and make the most of it.

From a Mail to Jonty, My Son

Congratulations on having been promoted to Std VII..!

Let's look to the future: You need to seriously start thinking about what you want out of life. You must focus on what you are best at... I am not insisting on great marks in the 'tough subjects', but it is essential that you pass at least. So, buck up, okay..?

Mum and I have tried to teach you right from wrong - and you have made us proud so often. I want you to continue being the wonderful son that you have always been to us...

Bureaucrazy

2006
April 17th: “Get your old passport.” – Mr Alok Prabhakar, Counsellor (Consular)

April 21st: “Will take a week or ten days.” – Mr Alok Prabhakar, Counsellor (Consular)

May 2nd: “Come for visa interview tomorrow.” – Visa Section

May 3rd: “Will take two days.” – Mr Ravi Goel, Visa Officer

May 5th: “Referred to headquarters; will take two weeks.” – Mr Ravi Goel, Visa Officer

May 19th: “Will take some time.” – Mr Ravi Goel, Visa Officer

July 25th: “Visa has not been granted.” – Mr Ravi Goel, Visa Officer

November 10th: “Call me on Monday for reference number.” – Ms Meera Sisodia, Visa Officer

November 13th: “Today is the first day of the week. Call tomorrow at the same time.” – Ms Meera Sisodia, Visa Officer

November 14th: “The reference number is COL/ VISA/ 407/ 1/ 2006 dated sometime in August 2006; have sent several reminders.” – Ms Meera Sisodia, Visa Officer

November 20th: “Get a letter from the Karnataka Government saying that your physical presence is required for them to process your citizenship application.” – Ms Meera Sisodia, Visa Officer

2007
April 18th: "I have your number. In case there's anything, I will get back to you." - Mr V Vinay Kumar, Counsellor (Consular)

May 23rd: “We sent a reminder two weeks back. Wait for some time. If there is no reply, we will send another reminder, okay? Call me on Monday or Tuesday.” – Chandra Prakash, Visa Officer

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Enjoy the Present: VL

Time is short and one is never certain what the future will bring. I have learnt this through my experience of the past months… Therefore, it is important to enjoy the present, as much as plan for the future.