Stopping a Galloping Beast

A good economist is a lot like inflation – difficult to keep down. And Harsha de Silva, Lead Economist, LIRNEasia, was as irrepressible as they come when The Sunday Times FT cornered him on the sidelines of a public event for an exclusive chat.

During de Silva’s presentation earlier, he had highlighted a graph indicating a high correlation between inflation and the Central Bank’s (CBSL) net credit to government. That represents extra money that was printed, he explained, which resulted in inflation.

In Zimbabwe, inflation rockets skyward at the incredible rate of 3,700% per annum. “In such an economy, it is more appropriate to measure inflation by the day,” quips de Silva. While Sri Lanka’s inflation – at 16% - seems tame in comparison, it is still the country’s economic enemy number one.

“Prices have been going up because of irresponsible printing of money by the CBSL,” says de Silva. “Since January, they have stopped printing money because they were forced to.” The good news is that if printing money pushes up inflation, stopping will bring it down as fast. That will happen “if Cabraal and crowd walk the talk”, says de Silva.

Explaining that monetary policy has also been tightened, de Silva says, "There are two things CBSL can do to reduce inflation: stop printing money – which they have done – and increase interest rates – which they are now doing.”

The flip side of the coin is that borrowings are becoming more expensive for corporate entities. “Even the prime lending rate is in excess of 20% - and that can be accessed only by AAA-rated companies like Hayleys and John Keells. Small-timers have to pay 30%-plus.” Doing some crystal ball-gazing, de Silva predicts that interest rates will descend only when inflation declines to 10%.